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Environmental Engineering Graduate Seminar

Dr. Mark Rowe

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Abstract: In 2017-2019, NOAA GLERL ran a hypoxia forecast model that generated a daily nowcast and forecast of three-dimensional fields of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Lake Erie. The goal of our five-year project is to develop a hypoxia forecast model that can serve public water systems in Lake Erie, and may be suitable for operational use at NOAA. The DO model was developed using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model’s General Ecological Module, and the hydrodynamic component was similar to NOAA’s Lake Erie Operational Forecast System. Upwelling events occurred in July-September, of each year that caused onset of hypoxic conditions at three or more drinking water intakes along the Ohio coast of Lake Erie. These events were observed with real-time DO sensors (GLOS and LimnoTech) and with a DO sensor mooring array we deployed at coastal and offshore locations throughout the central basin. Advance notice of these events was provided to drinking water plants through the NOAA GLERL website and by email communication. The model displayed limited skill in some characteristics, for example shallow-biased mixed layer depth. An assessment of model skill, suitability for the application, and future directions will be presented.