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Regional Climate Change in Illinois and the Great Lakes Regions

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Monday, October 25, 2010, 4 pm

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V. Rao Kotamarthi
Environmental Science Division
Argonne National Lab

Regional climate changes are expected to differ significantly from predicted global average changes. Changes in the mean temperatures for summer in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions could be as high as three times the predicted global average changes in temperature. Much smaller and yet significant changes are projected in precipitation. The extremes in temperature and precipitation are also projected to change in this region. One significant impact of these projected changes is could be on agriculture in the Midwest, the granary for the world. Preliminary results from our studies and results from a national effort for developing regional climate projections will be presented. To assess the influence of agriculture on the land surface system and evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop yields, we have integrated agriculture representation for three crop types: maize, soybean, and spring wheat, into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM). We will present results from the CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two ameriflux sites in the U.S., which grow maize and soybean. The need for further studies using high-spatial resolution global models and regional scale climate models will be highlighted.


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